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The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology
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Modeling the Psychosocial Effects of Terror or Natural Disasters for Response Preparation

Amy (Wenxuan) Ding

University of Illinois

Protecting human health provides the crux of any response to a catastrophic event, such as a bio-attack or an influenza pandemic. In the event of a disaster, people's anxiety and perceptions of risk influence the amount of response efforts required to mitigate the threat. Their behavior may accumulate and become collective social anxiety. In this study, we use differential dynamics to model the potential psychosocial impacts of a disaster on the affected population. In particular, we model how individuals respond to a disaster event, as well as the population-level collective psychosocial impacts. We then explore how such psychosocial impacts may challenge the effectiveness of response efforts or social productivity. Applying the proposed model to examine the potential psychosocial effects of SARS on health care professionals demonstrates the great effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed model therefore can be used as a framework for quick assessments of the psychological effects of a terror or natural disaster and provides a guide for response preparation, such as targeting interventions and resource allocations.

Key Words: Keywords: • collective anxiety • disaster response • psychosocial effects • public health • modeling and simulation • social dynamics

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, Vol. 4, No. 4, 318-342 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/154851290700400403
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