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On the Complexity of Parameter Calibration in Simulation Models

Institute for Technology of Intelligent Systems (ITIS) University of the Federal Armed Forces, Munich, 85577 Neubiberg, Germany

Model calibration is the task of adjusting an already existing model to a reference system. In general, this is done by adjusting model parameters to a set of given samples from the reference system. Model calibration is often regarded to be necessary for complex simulation models in order to create a homomorphic ("structurally equivalent") abstraction of (a special aspect of) reality. This paper introduces a formal approach to model calibration. Within the frame of this formalism it is shown that the computational complexity of model calibration is NP-complete. The practical implications of these theoretic results are presumably of minor importance for most single models. However, for huge model federations the complexity of parameter calibration could draw a serious line with respect to the validation of the federation and its cost-benefit ratio.

Key Words: Validation methodology • military applications • computer science • complexity theory

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, Vol. 2, No. 4, 217-226 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/154851290500200405


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